Youtube·2025-11-28 17:55Core Viewpoint - Oracle has experienced a significant decline in stock value, down 22% month-to-date, raising concerns about its credit and future financial commitments [1][2][5]. Company Analysis - Morgan Stanley has reiterated that risks for Oracle's credit are skewed to the downside, suggesting that the issues affecting Oracle are persistent and not likely to resolve soon [2][3]. - The credit team at Morgan Stanley is now recommending investors to go long on Oracle's credit default swaps (CDS) while removing the buy bond leg of their previous trade strategy [3][4]. - Analysts are questioning Oracle's ability to meet its estimated $90 billion debt commitments over the next three years without reassurance from OpenAI regarding a significant $300 billion deal [6]. Market Sentiment - There has been a shift in sentiment among bondholders due to the emergence of large-scale bond deals, which provide alternative investment options, leading to increased concerns about Oracle's stock [4][5]. - The upcoming earnings call for Oracle, expected the week of December 8th, is anticipated to provide clarity on the company's financing plans and future debt commitments [5]. Industry Context - The software sector is facing challenges, with the software ETF experiencing its worst month since January 2022, influenced by the performance of several key companies, including Oracle [10]. - In contrast, other companies in the cybersecurity space, such as Zscaler, are being viewed more favorably, with significant growth reported despite the overall downturn in the software sector [12][13].