Russians Are Starting to Feel Real Economic Pain From Putin’s War

Economic Overview - Russia's economy is experiencing significant strain, with GDP growth slowing to 0.6% in the third quarter, missing estimates, and a budget deficit projected to rise to 2.6% of GDP by year-end [17] - Oil and gas revenue has dropped over 20% from January to October, totaling 7.5 trillion rubles, due to lower crude prices, sanctions, and a stronger currency [18] - The banking sector is facing challenges, with troubled corporate debt rising to 10.4% in the second quarter, amounting to 9.1 trillion rubles ($112 billion) [16] Consumer Behavior - Inflation has eased to approximately 6.8% in early November, primarily due to weakening consumer demand, with households cutting back on food spending [8] - The average weekly grocery bill has more than doubled in recent years, leading families to buy fewer fruits and vegetables [9] - Sales of essential goods like milk, pork, buckwheat, and rice have dropped by 8-10% in September and October [10] Retail Sector Dynamics - The retail sector is undergoing a major transformation, with fashion retailers accounting for 45% of all store closures in the third quarter [11] - The electronics market is experiencing its sharpest demand drop in 30 years, as consumers postpone major purchases [11] - Car sales have shrunk by nearly 25% in the first nine months of the year, impacted by high borrowing costs and increased taxes [12] Industry-Specific Challenges - The steel industry is in crisis, with total consumption down 14% this year, and demand for steel in construction and machinery declining by 10% and 32% respectively [15] - Coal mining is facing its worst situation in a decade, with major companies cutting output [15] - The domestic fuel market is experiencing a crisis due to Ukrainian military actions, leading to price spikes and shortages in some regions [13] Government Response and Future Outlook - The Russian government is increasing debt through expensive domestic sales and plans to issue yuan-denominated sovereign bonds [21] - A rise in value-added tax and new levies on electronic components and vehicles are expected to add 1.2 trillion rubles to state coffers [22] - Analysts suggest that without a resolution to the ongoing conflict, a steady deterioration in economic conditions is likely to continue [21][23]