UK Risks Gas Shortages in 2030s as Domestic Output Plunges

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy System Operator (NESO) warns that Britain may face emerging risks to natural gas supply in the 2030s due to a significant decline in domestic production, leading to increased dependence on imports [1]. Group 1: Gas Supply Assessment - NESO's first annual Gas Security of Supply Assessment focuses on the winters between 2030 and 2036, evaluating gas supply security under its new role as Great Britain's Gas System Planner [1]. - Under normal seasonal weather conditions, current gas supply sources, including the UK Continental Shelf, pipeline imports from Norway, LNG imports, and biomethane, are sufficient to meet demand [2]. - The contribution of these supply sources is expected to change over time, primarily due to the long-term decline of UK Continental Shelf production, a trend observed since the early 2000s [2]. Group 2: Risks and Scenarios - While normal conditions do not threaten supply, NESO identifies emerging risks under peak demand scenarios for 2030/31 to 2035/36, particularly if decarbonization efforts are slow [3]. - In scenarios where all gas supply and network infrastructure are operational, risks are evident when peak gas demand approaches or exceeds current expectations [3]. - A significant loss of the largest gas infrastructure would result in supply falling short of demand expectations across all pathways in 2030/31 [4]. Group 3: Mitigation Measures - NESO suggests that a combination of measures will be necessary to mitigate emerging security of supply risks, including reducing peak day gas demand through decarbonization, maximizing supply from existing infrastructure, and developing new gas supply infrastructure [4]. Group 4: Production Decline - Oil and gas production in the UK North Sea has been declining since the 2000s, exacerbated by the UK's commitment to ban new projects and a punitive tax regime that hinders operators from reversing this trend [5]. - The industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) reports that no new exploration wells were drilled in 2025, with domestic oil and gas production having fallen by 40% in the last five years and projected to halve again by 2030 [6].