'Improving Risk Sentiment' Driving Bitcoin's $90K Retest: QCP

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price surged past $90,000 for the first time in nearly a week, driven by improving risk sentiment rather than a specific crypto catalyst [1] - The cryptocurrency is currently trading close to $91,500, reflecting a 5.3% increase over the past 24 hours [2] - The bullish turnaround in Bitcoin has led to significant short liquidations, totaling $241 million, which is more than triple the amount of long liquidations [2] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index confirmed a fourth consecutive up-close candlestick, aligning with Bitcoin's bullish movement [3] - There is an 85% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut by a quarter point in December, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [3] - Users on the prediction market Myriad also place an 83% chance on the Fed cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points in December [4] Risks and Outlook - Despite a shift towards easing in Fed commentary, there are still mixed signals from officials, with some remaining neutral or opposed to cuts [5] - Bitcoin's performance is increasingly reflective of broader financial market sentiment, influenced by macroeconomic factors [5] - Potential risks include the delisting of MicroStrategy from the S&P 500 index, which could negatively impact Bitcoin [6] - Institutional flows in options markets indicate a likelihood of Bitcoin remaining range-bound, with $2 billion observed this week [6] - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin may face challenges in rallying beyond $95,000 due to ETF-related distribution, while the $80,000 to $82,000 zone serves as a key support area [8]