铜供应“史上最紧张”!金属溢价飙至纪录，伦铜创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The global copper market is experiencing unprecedented supply chain tensions, driven by fierce negotiations between miners and smelters, tariff expectations from the U.S., and record metal premiums, leading to copper prices reaching new highs [1]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - On October 28, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to approximately $11,210 per ton, marking a 2.5% intraday increase and closing at $11,189 per ton, a new record high [1]. - The recent price surge follows a previous record set on October 29, indicating a significant upward trend in copper prices [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Tensions - The copper supply chain is under extreme pressure, with miners pushing for record-low processing fees during intense negotiations with smelters at an industry conference in Shanghai [1][3]. - The annual premium for refined copper shipped to China has reached an all-time high, reflecting the tight supply situation [2]. Group 3: Global Market Implications - The intense negotiations between miners and smelters are causing a ripple effect globally, with major suppliers like Codelco offering record premiums of $350 per ton to certain Chinese customers, significantly higher than the previously agreed $89 [2][4]. - The expectation that the U.S. will absorb a large amount of refined copper is leading to a supply mismatch, with projections indicating that by Q1 2026, the U.S. could hold 90% of the global copper inventory [4]. Group 4: Currency Influence - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, is contributing to the rise in copper prices by lowering procurement costs for overseas buyers [5]. - The ICE dollar index has been declining, which supports metal prices, including copper, amidst supply disruptions and policy-driven buying [5].