Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-29 01:00Core Viewpoint - LME copper futures surged over 4%, surpassing $11,200, reaching a historical high due to supply shortages and expectations of a weaker dollar from potential Fed rate cuts [2][3] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rise in futures prices reflects expectations of copper shortages, driven by supply disruptions from mining accidents in Indonesia and Chile, alongside accelerating demand growth in the coming years [3] - The current copper supply chain is experiencing a historic tightness, with miners regaining pricing power after years of expanded smelting capacity [3] - Negotiations during a recent industry conference in Shanghai were intense, with miners pressuring smelters to accept record-low processing fees [3] Group 2: Pricing and Market Impact - Codelco's pricing for the U.S. market has reached a premium of over $500 per ton, a historical high, reflecting supply-demand fundamentals and additional costs [4] - Codelco's premiums for Chinese buyers have surged to $350 per ton, significantly higher than previously agreed prices, indicating market concerns over potential copper shortages [4] - Predictions suggest that U.S. copper imports may approach record levels, with U.S. inventories potentially accounting for 90% of global copper stocks, exacerbating shortages elsewhere [5] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for 2026, anticipating prices to reach $11,500 per ton by March and $13,000 by December, driven by ongoing supply risks and declining inventories [6] - The copper market is expected to face significant deficits, with projected shortfalls of 230,000 tons in 2025 and nearly 407,000 tons in 2026, much higher than previous estimates [7] - Long-term forecasts from Goldman Sachs suggest copper prices could reach $15,000 per ton by 2035 due to resource constraints and increasing demand in key sectors [7]