Is American Express the Credit Stock For a K-Shaped Economy?

Group 1: Company Performance - Mastercard reported a top- and bottom-line beat for Q3 2025, with revenue growth of 15% year-over-year (YOY) [1] - Visa achieved a small EPS beat and a significant revenue beat, with net revenue up 11% YOY and EPS up 14% YOY [2] - American Express missed revenue expectations but had a strong EPS beat, raising full-year sales guidance to reflect 9-10% growth [3] Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve reported that net credit card charge-off rates at commercial banks have decreased to 4.17%, nearly 50 basis points lower than the previous year [4] - Despite weak consumer sentiment indicated by the University of Michigan survey, consumer spending remains resilient enough to support the economy [5] - Consumer delinquency rates are rising, and market volatility reflects investor concerns about economic conditions [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - American Express is positioned to benefit in a K-shaped economy, with affluent customers continuing to spend while lower-income consumers become more frugal [7][9] - Visa and Mastercard are more vulnerable to economic downturns affecting lower-income consumers, as they primarily earn revenue through transaction fees [11] - American Express has a more attractive valuation compared to Visa and Mastercard, trading at 23 times forward earnings and 3.5 times sales, while Visa and Mastercard trade at higher multiples [12][13] Group 4: Stock Performance - American Express shares have increased nearly 40% since April, outperforming Visa and Mastercard [13] - For Visa or Mastercard to catch up to American Express, economic distress would need to impact higher-income earners, which is not currently anticipated [15]