Bitcoin Downtrend Driven by Early Whale Selling, Says Ki Young Ju

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent price correction from $110,000 to approximately $80,000 is attributed to significant selling by early whales who have a cost basis around $16,000, which is creating downward pressure on the market [1][2] - The current market dynamics are characterized by a competition between legacy whales and institutional investors, with the former realizing profits through substantial daily sales [2][3] - Institutional demand from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy has not been sufficient to counterbalance the selling pressure from early whales, leading to a challenging market outlook for Bitcoin [3][4] Market Dynamics - Early Bitcoin whales are selling at rates of hundreds of millions of USD daily, which is overwhelming the buying power of institutional whales [2] - Institutional investors, including those holding over 10,000 BTC, have an average cost basis around $38,000, while Binance traders entered positions around $50,000, indicating many market participants are in profit and may sell if necessary [3] - Despite earlier inflows from spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, recent data shows a decline in these inflows, with outflows starting to dominate the market [4] Market Cycle Analysis - On-chain profit-and-loss metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently in a "shoulder" phase of its market cycle, suggesting limited short-term growth potential and an increased risk of correction [5] - The valuation multiplier has shifted to a neutral-to-flat outlook, indicating that market leverage is less efficient compared to previous cycles, which could hinder significant gains [6] - While a dramatic crash of 70-80% is not expected, corrections of up to 30% are considered reasonable, with potential drops from $100,000 to around $70,000 [7]