力压黄金 “黑马”跑出历史新高！

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with silver outperforming gold this year [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - COMEX silver futures reached a peak of $57.245 per ounce, marking a new high since the contract's inception, with an intraday increase of 6.79% [1]. - London spot silver also saw a significant rise, with a 5.74% increase, breaking historical records [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver futures contract hit a maximum of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 5.55% increase and also reaching a historical high [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as indicated by the CME Group's FedWatch tool [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated support for the December rate cut, citing stable economic data since the last meeting [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while recycling is expected to reach a 13-year high with only a 1% increase [4]. - Despite a projected decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces in 2025 (a 4% decrease), a supply deficit of 95 million ounces is anticipated for the fifth consecutive year [5][4]. - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply is expected to remain short in 2026, supporting price stability [5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Trends - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by approximately 301.8%, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating between 63 and 122 [7][10]. - Silver's dual nature as both an industrial and financial asset has led to varied price movements, with its industrial demand becoming a significant factor since 2022, particularly from the solar panel sector [9][11]. - The evolving dynamics of the gold-silver ratio illustrate silver's transition from a secondary role to a more independent market presence, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the context of global energy transitions [10][11].