历史新高！强势大涨，资金“做多”

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a standout performer in the precious metals market, with recent price surges driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Price Performance - On November 28, COMEX silver futures reached a record high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a more than 6% increase, while London spot silver peaked at $56.533 per ounce, up over 5% [2][5]. - The domestic market also saw significant gains, with the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hitting a new high of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, an increase of over 5% [5]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment for silver remains bullish, with a cumulative increase of over 12% in both COMEX silver futures and London spot silver since the beginning of the week [8]. - Analysts note that the strong upward trend in silver prices is supported by continuous inflows into long positions, indicating robust market confidence [8]. Driving Factors - Key drivers for the recent surge in silver prices include expectations of macroeconomic monetary policy changes, particularly a high probability (over 80%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which has weakened the dollar and reduced holding costs for silver [8]. - Industrial demand for silver is also on the rise, driven by high photovoltaic installation rates and increasing penetration of electric vehicles, alongside a persistent global supply deficit [8]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts express optimism regarding the medium to long-term price trajectory of silver, suggesting that the price center is likely to steadily rise due to valuation recovery potential relative to gold and sustained demand from green energy transitions [9]. - However, caution is advised regarding short-term volatility risks, particularly if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations or if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance [9].