白银历史新高！强势大涨，资金“做多”

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a standout performer in the precious metals market, with recent price surges driven by macroeconomic policies, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand dynamics [1][8]. Price Performance - On November 28, COMEX silver futures reached a record high of $57.245 per ounce, marking an increase of over 6%, while London spot silver also hit a new peak at $56.533 per ounce, up more than 5% [2][5]. - The domestic market mirrored this trend, with the main contract for Shanghai silver futures climbing to 13,239 yuan per kilogram, an increase of over 5% [5]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment for silver remains bullish, with both COMEX and London silver prices showing cumulative gains exceeding 12% for the week [8]. - Analysts note that the strong upward trend in silver prices is supported by continuous inflows into long positions, indicating robust market confidence [8]. Driving Factors - Key drivers for the recent surge in silver prices include expectations of macroeconomic monetary policy changes, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is now anticipated with over 80% probability [8]. - Industrial demand for silver is also on the rise, driven by high photovoltaic installation rates and increasing penetration of electric vehicles, alongside a persistent global supply deficit [8]. Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the medium to long-term price trajectory of silver, although they caution against short-term volatility risks [9]. - Analysts suggest that if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations or if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, silver prices may face corrections [9]. - The current gold-silver ratio indicates that silver has room for valuation recovery, supported by long-term demand from green energy transitions [9].