智通财经网·2025-11-29 13:29Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the U.S. economy will experience a shift from strong to weak internal momentum in the first half of the year, with potential for a rebound in real estate demand in the second half due to possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Economic Recovery and Real Estate - The U.S. economy is undergoing a K-shaped recovery post-pandemic, with strong performance in high-end manufacturing driven by AI investments, while the real estate sector remains sluggish [2] - The upcoming elections and policies from the Trump administration are expected to focus on real estate, particularly in light of recent Democratic victories in local elections related to housing affordability [2] Interest Rates and Housing Market Dynamics - Historically, interest rate cuts have positively impacted real estate, with effects typically seen within 1 to 2 years for investment and sales, while home prices tend to rise significantly 6 to 18 months after rate cuts begin [2][3] - The current real estate downturn has been prolonged, lasting four years since November 2021, with new home sales showing unexpected resilience despite a significant drop in existing home sales [2][3] Challenges in the Housing Market - The complexity of the current cycle is attributed to both cyclical and structural factors, including high mortgage rates and a lack of new construction since 2008, leading to high prices and limited supply [3][4] - Over 52% of existing mortgage holders have rates below 4%, making them reluctant to sell or buy, which constrains the supply of existing homes [3][4] Housing Supply and Demand Gap - As of 2023, the U.S. faces a housing gap of approximately 4.7 million units, with demand significantly outpacing supply [4] - The anticipated completion of new homes in 2024 is expected to be lower than previous years, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [4] Future Outlook - The report suggests that without a recession, significant interest rate cuts are unlikely, as historical data shows limited rate reductions in non-recession years [5][6] - The Trump administration's focus on supply-side reforms and potential introduction of longer-term mortgages could help alleviate current housing market pressures, but this will take time [6][7] - For the upcoming year, supply is expected to improve slightly due to interest rate cuts, but builders remain cautious due to high costs and demand uncertainties [7]