Insider Monkey·2025-11-29 15:07Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of the American consumer market, highlighting mixed signals in retail sales and consumer confidence ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday [2][3] - It emphasizes the polarization in economic activity, particularly between affluent and less-affluent consumers, and the potential impact on consumer spending [4] Consumer Market Overview - Retail sales in the US grew by 0.2% in September, a slowdown from 0.6% in August, with declines in clothing retailers (0.7%), electronics and appliances (0.5%), and car dealerships (0.3%) [2] - The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 88.7 points in November, down 6.8 points from October's 95.5, indicating a lack of optimism among consumers [3] Economic Insights - EY's chief economist noted a "K-shaped" economy, where affluent individuals experience different economic outcomes compared to less-affluent ones, leading to increased polarization in economic activity [4] - The "A-Pillar" economy, driven by AI, asset prices, and affluent consumers, is at risk if any of these pillars falter, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending [4] Stock Recommendations - The article lists 12 consumer cyclical stocks recommended by analysts, focusing on those with high upside potential and hedge fund sentiment [6][7] - Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) has an average upside potential of 12% and has seen a 79% increase in shares year-to-date, with a target of selling three million vehicles annually over the next 5 to 10 years [8][11] - The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) has an average upside potential of 13.01%, but recently cut its full-year earnings forecast due to lower consumer spending and weaker demand for home improvement products [12][14][15]