This Historical Market Pattern Just Ended, and It Could Be a Precursor to a Market Crash

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has ended a historically long streak of 138 consecutive trading days above its 50-day moving average, the longest since 2006-2007 and the fifth-longest since 1950 [1][5][7] - The Nasdaq Composite also experienced a similar streak, marking its longest since 1995 [2] - The end of such streaks can indicate short-term weakness, but the more critical measure is whether the market remains above its 200-day moving average, which is currently 6,166.05, with the S&P 500 being 8% above this level [3] Historical Context - Historically, the end of the S&P 500's streak has not always led to negative outcomes, as past instances have shown positive returns three and six months later [5][6] - Notable examples include 2007, where the S&P 500 saw a short-term dip but eventually reached a new all-time high, closing the year with a 5.5% total return [6] - Conversely, the end of the streak in 2007 also foreshadowed a bear market that began months later, as did a similar occurrence in 1961 [7][8]