智通财经网·2025-11-30 00:29Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant upward trend in gold prices since 2025, driven by factors such as de-dollarization, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - International spot gold prices have risen from approximately $2,650 per ounce to a peak of $4,381 per ounce, setting new historical highs [1]. - The correlation between gold prices and traditional indicators like the US dollar and real interest rates has weakened, necessitating a refinement of the pricing framework for gold [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for gold is primarily driven by three components: private consumption, private investment (including ETF demand), and official purchases by central banks [2]. - Since 2023, there has been a notable shift in the demand structure for gold, with increased contributions from global central bank purchases and private investment demand in Asia, particularly China [2][3]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Central bank gold purchases are becoming a long-term trend, with demand expected to remain high due to the weakening of the US dollar's credit and the increasing need for asset diversification [3]. - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for central banks globally, with its share in official reserves projected to reach 20% by 2024 [3]. Group 4: Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to further support gold price increases, as lower nominal and real interest rates typically boost gold's appeal [9].