Goldman Sachs' exec shares gold price forecast for 2026

Core Insights - Gold prices have retreated from all-time highs near $4,400 to below $4,000 per ounce, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally [1] - Despite the recent dip, gold has provided a 6% return for "buy the dip" investors since its price lows, and has a year-to-date return of 60% [1] - Goldman Sachs has updated its gold outlook, considering various economic factors that may influence gold prices in 2026 [5] Economic Context - The U.S. economy is experiencing growth, with GDP rising, but there are signs of weakness in the labor market, including a significant drop in job creation [4] - Job creation has slowed to only 10,000 jobs over the past three months, a stark contrast to earlier in the year when over 100,000 jobs were created monthly [4] - Layoffs have surged, with 153,074 reported in October, a 175% increase year-over-year, and a total of 1,099,500 job cuts announced year-to-date, marking a 65% increase from the previous year [5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, up from 4% in January and a low of 3.4% earlier in 2023 [5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has increased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a rise to 3% in September from 2.3% in April, influenced by tariff policies [6] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing its dual mandate of low unemployment and controlling inflation, as recent economic data complicates this goal [6] - The Fed has lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point in recent meetings, with a high probability of further cuts in December [8]