李蓓：龙头企业寒冬开花利润率启动回升，正是核心指数ROE能够筑底、无明显向下风险的关键原因

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are currently among the most cost-effective high-return assets globally, with core indices' ROE stabilizing despite ongoing economic pressures and deflation [1][4]. Valuation Comparison - A-shares and Hong Kong stock indices exhibit significant return advantages compared to global assets, with the CSI 300 index's current PE ratio at approximately 13 times, implying a return of 7%, while some Hong Kong indices show even higher implied returns [1]. - Despite concerns about bubbles in certain sectors, the overall market's median valuation remains in a relatively low range, indicating that valuation risks have been largely released [1]. Profitability Concerns - The primary concern regarding profitability amidst economic decline and persistent deflation has been addressed, asserting that core indices' ROE will not significantly decline even if economic conditions do not improve [4]. - Historical data shows that during previous economic downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2015 market adjustment, the ROE of core indices stabilized at current levels, receiving strong support [4]. Industry Dynamics - In economic downturns, many companies face losses, but leading firms maintain their ROE, reflecting the profitability gap between strong and weak companies. The index is primarily composed of leading firms, which helps stabilize the overall ROE [4]. - The construction materials industry serves as a case study, where leading companies are showing signs of profit improvement despite the sector's deep adjustment. For instance, only the top two companies in the industry remain profitable, while the third has incurred losses [4]. Investment Value of Leading Firms - Leading companies are expected to maintain their profitability levels even if industry demand continues to decline, as the exit of weaker firms will absorb downward pressure on the industry [4]. - The profit margins of leading firms have begun to recover from around 6%, while the second-ranked firm's net profit is only 1%, illustrating the resilience of core indices' ROE [4][5].