标肥价差走扩31%！大猪能否扛起猪价反弹大旗？

Core Viewpoint - The price difference between standard and large pigs has widened, indicating an increasing demand for larger pigs in the market, particularly for making preserved meats as the winter season approaches [1] Supply Structure Changes - The number of pigs held by smallholders has decreased by 15% compared to last year, while the proportion of large pigs (over 140 kg) in total inventory has risen to 22% [2] - In the Sichuan-Chongqing region, the proportion of large pigs (300-400 lbs) in local slaughterhouses has increased by 8 percentage points to 35%, reflecting strong local demand for larger pigs [2] Supply Pressure and Market Dynamics - Despite the widening price difference, supply pressure remains, with the price difference only increasing by 0.01 yuan/kg, indicating limited market capacity to absorb large pigs [3] - As of October, pigs weighing 90-140 kg accounted for 36.22% of the inventory, up by 1.68% from last year, suggesting a significant number of standard and large pigs will be available for sale in the coming months [3] Demand Variability - National slaughterhouse operating rates have slightly decreased by 0.03 percentage points, and fresh meat sales have dropped by 0.09 percentage points, indicating insufficient consumer acceptance of large pigs [4] - While demand for preserved meats has increased in the Southwest, with orders for preserved meat in Sichuan rising by 20%, regions like Henan show a lower demand for large pigs, with only 18% of local slaughterhouse purchases being large pigs, down by 5 percentage points from last year [4] Disease Impact - Although winter is a peak period for pig diseases, the survival rate in large farms remains high at over 95% due to robust biosecurity measures, limiting the impact of diseases on overall supply [5] - The inventory of breeding sows is still 2% above normal levels, indicating that the fundamental oversupply of pigs remains unchanged [5] Price Outlook - In the short term, the supply of large pigs is expected to exceed demand by 15% in November and December, primarily due to the concentration of previously raised pigs coming to market [7] - Despite the price advantage of large pigs and the widening price difference, overall pig prices are not expected to rise significantly [7] - In the medium to long term, the market may experience a "low first, high later" trend, with high breeding sow inventory likely keeping prices around the cost line of 12-13 yuan/kg in the first half of 2026 [7]