Global week ahead: The start of a Santa Rally or more 'bah humbug'?

Market Overview - U.S. major indices have underperformed in November, particularly the Nasdaq, while Europe's Stoxx 600 has achieved its fifth consecutive positive month [1] - Concerns over AI valuations and spending plans have negatively impacted tech stocks globally [1] Santa Rally Potential - Historical data shows that the FTSE 100 has delivered positive returns in December 24 out of the last 30 years, suggesting a potential for a Santa Rally [2] - Markets are pricing in a 90% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in December, which could boost market sentiment [2] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to cut rates, which is viewed positively as their policy is considered to be in a "good place" [3] - There is an 83% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in December, which could influence market movements [3][4] Market Risks - Concerns remain regarding the pace of AI hyperscaler spending, with warnings from the ECB about stretched U.S. tech valuations due to "fear of missing out" among investors [5] - The potential for "sharp correlated price adjustments" in AI-driven stocks is highlighted as a key risk [5] Cryptocurrency Outlook - Bitcoin is predicted to continue its decline as newer investors sell off their holdings, with long-term holders also potentially selling due to the upcoming "halving" event [7] - The pressure on Bitcoin may persist into year-end, affecting overall market sentiment [7] Upcoming Global Events - Key global events in December include the Federal Reserve policy decision on December 10, the Swiss National Bank policy decision on December 11, and the Bank of England and European Central Bank policy decisions on December 18 [8]