Gold Weekly Forecast: Bulls Show Interest as Fed Cut Odds Grow

Core Insights - Gold has gained momentum as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have strengthened, rising more than 2% over the week despite a slowdown due to the US Thanksgiving holiday [1] - Fed officials have indicated a potential 25-basis-point cut in December, with Governor Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams expressing support for easing monetary policy [2][3] - The market is now focused on upcoming US economic data to assess the likelihood of a rate cut, with an 85% chance assigned for a 25 bps cut in December according to the CME FedWatch Tool [5] Economic Indicators - Durable goods orders rose by 0.5% in September, surpassing expectations of 0.3%, but did not significantly alter Fed expectations, allowing gold to remain firm above $4,100 [4] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were reported at 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous period, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market [3] - The Challenger Job Cuts report indicated layoffs surged to 153,074 in October, the highest level in 22 years, with a sharp drop potentially easing labor-market concerns and supporting the USD [7] Market Sentiment - Trading activity remained thin on Friday, but gold stayed near the upper end of its weekly range, reflecting cautious optimism among investors [4] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI reports are critical upcoming indicators, with a reading above 50 supporting the USD and potentially weighing on gold prices, while a drop below 50 could provide support for gold [5][6]