贵金属风云又起，白银再创新高后还有多大上涨空间？

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs remains bullish on gold, citing its enduring structural support rather than return rate considerations [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The precious metals sector has regained focus, with COMEX silver futures reaching a record high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 13% [2] - Gold and copper prices have also surged, with COMEX gold surpassing $4263 per ounce and LME copper nearing historical highs, raising questions about whether this rally is driven by short-term sentiment or a continuation of long-term trends [2] - Silver has led the rally, with a cumulative increase of 16% since November, driven by global economic uncertainty and rising inflation expectations [2][3] Group 2: Investment Trends and Market Sentiment - The iShares Silver Trust currently holds 15,610.54 tons of silver, indicating strong investment interest [3] - Speculative net long positions in silver have increased, reflecting heightened market activity, although liquidity risks may amplify short-term volatility [3] - UBS has raised its silver price forecast, predicting it could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, with potential spikes to $65 per ounce [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The World Silver Association forecasts a decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces by 2025, a 4% year-on-year decrease, while supply deficits are expected to continue for the fifth consecutive year, estimated at 9.5 million ounces [3] - Gold prices have also seen significant gains, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 50%, supported by high U.S. debt levels, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [5] - Copper prices have risen sharply, reflecting optimistic expectations for global economic growth, with a year-to-date increase of over 27% [6]