兴证策略：会有跨年行情吗?

Core Viewpoint - Recent easing of various market disturbances is expected to lead to a recovery in Chinese assets, supported by the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and the alleviation of concerns regarding the "AI bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's statements and economic data have increased expectations for a rate cut, with an 86% probability for a 25 basis point cut in December [2] - The global AI industry's progress is alleviating concerns about an "AI bubble," with Google's comprehensive approach to AI leading the narrative in the tech sector [1] Group 2: Year-End Market Dynamics - The year-end period is historically a significant window for market rallies, with previous years showing upward trends starting from November to early January [3] - Factors driving these rallies include a vacuum in fundamental data, upcoming important meetings, and expectations for policy easing [3] Group 3: Catalysts for Market Movements - Market rallies can be triggered by three main factors: 1. Economic improvement leading to a pro-cyclical style [4] 2. Unexpected macro policy changes benefiting high-elasticity sectors [4] 3. Easing of prior risks and liquidity expansion favoring sectors with favorable trends [4] Group 4: Investment Directions - Focus on sectors with high growth expectations, including AI, advantageous manufacturing, "anti-involution," and structural recovery in domestic demand [7] - Emphasis on cyclical sectors benefiting from stable growth policies and market expectations [10] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The year-end meetings are expected to provide clarity on policies aimed at enhancing service consumption and investment in human capital, which could benefit cyclical sectors [10] - The emphasis on technological self-reliance and new productivity in the context of national competition is likely to drive growth in tech sectors [13]