Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-11-30 11:33Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound in AI-related stocks, driven by a reversal in interest rate expectations, strong performance from Alibaba's AI cloud business, and renewed inflows from southbound funds [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 28, the Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher but retreated, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.34% [1]. - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) showed resilience, rising 0.36% and maintaining a position above the 10-day moving average since hitting a low on November 21 [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - A significant shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has occurred, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising to 86.9%, up from less than 30% a week prior [4]. Group 3: AI Sector Developments - Alibaba's latest financial report revealed a 34% year-on-year increase in AI cloud revenue to 39.8 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, and a substantial 80% increase in quarterly capital expenditure [5]. - Alibaba's market share in China's AI cloud sector reached 35.8% in the first half of the year, significantly higher than its competitors [5]. Group 4: Fund Inflows - Southbound funds have resumed significant purchases in the internet sector, with Alibaba-W seeing a net inflow of 25.449 billion HKD over 11 consecutive days [6]. - Xiaomi Group-W and Meituan-W also received substantial net purchases, amounting to 13.619 billion HKD and 2.1 billion HKD, respectively [6]. Group 5: Valuation Insights - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.51, placing it in the lower valuation range compared to the NASDAQ and ChiNext indices, which have P/E ratios of 36.29 and 38.90, respectively [4][8]. - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized as a valuation "bargain" for AI stocks, with many companies deeply embedded in global supply chains and transitioning from investment phases to value realization [8]. Group 6: ETF Composition - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) tracks major internet leaders, with Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W being the top three holdings, accounting for 18.23%, 16.77%, and 10.21% of the fund, respectively [9][10].