管涛：不宜押注人民币汇率的单边走势︱汇海观涛

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against external shocks in 2023, with a notable appreciation against the US dollar, leading to optimistic market sentiment regarding future exchange rate trends [1][12]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The yuan has appreciated by 1.55% in the onshore central parity rate and 3.10% in the spot exchange rate against the US dollar in the first eleven months of 2023 [1]. - The exchange rate volatility has significantly decreased, with the maximum fluctuation of the onshore central parity rate at 1.9%, the lowest since 2016 [2]. - The offshore yuan (CNH) has appreciated by 3.76% during the same period, indicating a general strengthening of the yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Recent developments, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and positive diplomatic engagements between China and the US, have fueled market optimism for the yuan [7][8]. - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of a stable economic environment, with expectations of further yuan appreciation if the Federal Reserve continues its easing policies [8]. Group 3: Economic Context and Policy Implications - The Chinese government aims to maintain the yuan's stability within a reasonable range, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for macroeconomic stability and growth, which supports the yuan's fundamental strength [9]. - The potential for a more flexible exchange rate policy could lead to wider fluctuations in the yuan's value, depending on economic conditions and external factors [12].