美国中产阶级的萎缩：贫困线重构与经济不平等的深层危机

Core Insights - The American middle class is not slowly declining but is facing a silent and comprehensive shrinkage [1][3] - The official poverty line is misleading, with a significant gap between reported and actual living costs, leading to over 70% of American families being effectively classified as "poor" [3][4] Historical Context - The post-war era (1945-1970) marked the golden age of the middle class, with labor participation rates rising and real wages increasing significantly [4] - The shift in economic policy during the 1980s, particularly under Reagan's neoliberal policies, led to a decline in labor income's share of GDP and an increase in corporate profits [4][5] Key Data Analysis - Essential expenditures such as housing, healthcare, and childcare now account for nearly 60% of family budgets, compared to about one-third in 1963 [2][6] - The median home price in 2025 is projected to be $416,900, which is five times the median family income of $83,150, significantly higher than historical averages [6][7] - The average hourly wage has not kept pace with inflation, resulting in a 34% decline in purchasing power over the past 25 years [8] Causes of Decline - Policy changes since 1980 have exacerbated inequality, with tax reforms favoring the wealthy while increasing the tax burden on the middle class [9] - Financialization has dominated the economy, with a significant portion of corporate profits being returned to shareholders rather than reinvested in labor [9][10] - Globalization and automation have further eroded middle-class jobs, with manufacturing employment declining by 30% since 1980 [9] Future Outlook - The contraction of the middle class is expected to worsen between 2025 and 2030, with potential poverty rates reaching 75% under restructured calculations [11] - However, there are potential turning points, such as job creation from infrastructure investments and possible interest rate cuts, which could alleviate housing burdens [11][12] - Structural reforms are necessary to address the root causes of middle-class decline, including tax reforms and investments in vocational education [12]