粮船运价高位趋稳，市场供需博弈持续

Group 1: Inland Transportation - Wheat prices have fluctuated, returning to a high level, with a steady pace of grain shipments from holders, while the supply of autumn grains like rice is increasing, supporting high inland grain shipping rates [1] - The overall market for circulating grain is relatively tight due to low levels of reserve wheat releases, while the arrival of autumn grains provides additional shipping demand, maintaining high inland shipping rates [1] - Upstream drought conditions have tightened shipping capacity, and the influx of northeastern corn has further increased shipping costs, with maintenance at some local locks exacerbating the pressure on shipping capacity [1] Group 2: Coastal Transportation - In coastal grain transportation, the volume of wheat shipments from the Jiangsu and Anhui regions has not significantly increased, but shipping rates remain high due to strong demand from the northern market and adverse weather conditions [3] - The shipping cost from Anning Port to Guangdong for a 5000-ton vessel is 80-85 yuan/ton, while to Fujian it is 70-75 yuan/ton, indicating sustained high shipping rates despite a lack of significant volume increase [3] - The efficiency of ship turnover at northern ports has decreased, and rising costs for rail and road transport have stimulated water transport demand, leading to tight shipping capacity on southern routes [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The pace of autumn grain listings is expected to accelerate, keeping inland shipping demand active, with close attention needed on the dynamics of wheat and autumn grain sales and shipping capacity changes [2] - Coastal shipping rates are currently at a two-year high, influenced by rising costs in shipping operations, and there is potential for a price correction as weather improves and port operations in the north become more efficient [4] - Future market focus will be on the coordination of purchasing and sales between northern and southern regions as the traditional consumption peak approaches [4]