医药主题“翻倍基”明显缩量 基金公司仍看好行业增长

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a slowdown in momentum after a strong rally earlier in the year, with a significant reduction in the number of "doubling funds" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 28, only two pharmaceutical-themed funds, Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical A and Chuangjin Hexin Global Pharmaceutical Biotechnology A, maintained over 100% returns for the year, with cumulative returns of 107.69% and 100.32% respectively [2]. - The average return of pharmaceutical-themed funds has retreated by approximately 10% from the peak in September [2]. - Major pharmaceutical ETFs, including the CSI 300 Healthcare Index and the CSI All Share Healthcare Index, have seen a decline in scale over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in passive fund inflows [2]. Group 2: Policy Environment - The policy environment for the pharmaceutical industry is expected to remain positive, with three key factors identified: clear top-level design, scientific regulation, and standardized development of traditional Chinese medicine [3][4]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, providing comprehensive support across various stages [3]. - The upcoming negotiations for the national basic medical insurance directory and commercial insurance innovative drug directory are anticipated to enhance funding sources for the healthcare industry [3][4]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry has been ranked relatively low in terms of valuation over the past four years, indicating that it has undergone sufficient valuation digestion, suggesting potential upside [6]. - The industry is transitioning from a "short-term trading" mindset to a focus on "valuation recovery," with signs of performance improvement following the release of Q3 reports [6]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to facilitate a recovery in pharmaceutical investment and financing, further strengthening the positive outlook for the industry [7].