A股持续高位震荡 机构：跨年行情可期

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery trend, with expectations for a favorable cross-year market in December as various disruptive factors gradually ease [2][3][5]. Market Overview - The A-share market showed a recovery last week, with major indices mostly rising, particularly in the TMT sector, which rebounded from previous declines [2]. - The overall market in November exhibited a rotation from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets, indicating increased attractiveness of defensive sectors [2]. Factors Influencing Market Recovery - Multiple favorable factors are driving the recent market upturn, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alleviation of concerns regarding the overseas AI bubble, and proactive domestic policies [3]. - The easing of overseas disruptive factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's statements and economic data, has contributed to a global risk asset recovery [3]. - The recent strengthening of the RMB, which has surpassed the 7.08 mark, is seen as a positive factor for the recovery of Chinese assets [3][4]. December Market Outlook - Institutions believe that the A-share market is well-positioned for a cross-year rally in December, supported by a gradual increase in market risk appetite [5]. - The market is expected to benefit from significant domestic and international policy observations, with a favorable macroeconomic outlook for 2026 [5]. - Historical trends suggest that December to January is a favorable period for investors to position themselves for the cross-year market, particularly in sectors with positive earnings forecasts [6]. Sector Focus - The technology growth sector is viewed as a long-term mainstay, with recent adjustments seen as a necessary correction of previous high valuations [7]. - Specific sectors such as robotics and brokerage firms are anticipated to be key players in the market leading up to the 2026 Spring Festival [7]. - Defensive sectors, particularly high-dividend and consumer stocks, are recommended for short-term investment during the current market volatility [7].