Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery trend, with major indices mostly rising, driven by a shift in capital from high-valuation growth stocks to undervalued cyclical stocks and dividend assets, indicating an increasing attractiveness of defensive sectors [1][2] Group 1: Market Recovery Factors - The recent rebound in the A-share market is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alleviation of concerns regarding the overseas AI bubble, and proactive domestic policies [2] - The strengthening of the RMB against the USD, which recently surpassed the 7.08 mark, is seen as a positive factor for the recovery of Chinese assets, enhancing the relative attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for foreign investors [2] Group 2: December Market Outlook - Institutions believe that the A-share market is well-positioned for a cross-year rally in December, supported by the gradual easing of previous market disturbances and an anticipated increase in risk appetite [3] - The upcoming month is expected to be a critical observation window for domestic and international policies, with potential benefits for sectors like consumption and real estate [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Historical data suggests that December to January is an optimal period for investors to position themselves for the cross-year rally, particularly in sectors where earnings forecasts are likely to meet or exceed expectations [4] - The technology growth sector is still viewed as a long-term mainstay, with expectations for a recovery in its upward trend as valuation adjustments are completed [5] Group 4: Sector Focus - The focus for the upcoming year-end market includes sectors such as robotics and brokerage firms, with consumer and real estate sectors also presenting potential short-term trading opportunities [6] - Defensive sectors, particularly high-dividend and consumer stocks, are recommended for short-term investment during the current market volatility [6]
机构展望 | A股持续高位震荡 机构：跨年行情可期
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-11-30 18:53