This 7% Yielder Could Be a Top AI Play

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is facing significant challenges due to declining revenues from its COVID-19 products and a looming patent cliff, but it has potential growth opportunities through strategic acquisitions and advancements in AI drug discovery [2][4][5]. Financial Performance - Pfizer's shares have decreased by approximately 50% since December 2022, primarily due to a drop in revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty and pill Paxlovid, which accounted for over 54% of its $100.3 billion revenue in 2022 [2][3]. - In Q3 2025, Paxlovid revenue fell by 55% year-over-year, while Comirnaty revenue decreased by 20% [2]. - The company's Q3 revenue dropped from $22.6 billion in 2022 to $16.7 billion in the latest quarter, indicating a significant decline in sales [3]. Patent Expiration Concerns - Pfizer is facing a patent cliff, with key patents expiring for its pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13 in 2026 and for anticoagulant Eliquis, breast cancer treatment Ibrance, and prostate cancer therapy Xtandis in 2027 [4]. - The patent expiration of Eliquis alone generated $7.4 billion in revenue in 2024, contributing to an expected $236 billion revenue impact on the pharmaceutical industry by 2030 [4]. Strategic Acquisitions - Pfizer's acquisition of biotech start-up Metsera for approximately $10 billion aims to enter the $133 billion weight loss drug market, which is projected to grow significantly by 2030 [6][7]. - Metsera's pipeline includes promising obesity drugs MET-097i and MET-233i, with potential peak sales of $5 billion annually [8]. AI Drug Discovery Initiatives - Pfizer has made substantial investments in digital infrastructure, enabling it to process over 50 billion clinical data points annually, which has accelerated its drug development processes [12]. - The Pfizer-Amazon Collaboration Team (PACT) initiative has led to 14 AI and machine learning projects that save Pfizer's scientists 16,000 hours of search time annually and reduce infrastructure costs by 55% [13]. - The company anticipates $7.7 billion in overall savings while reinvesting $500 million into research and development, showcasing the efficiency gains from AI [14]. Market Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to benefit significantly from AI, with McKinsey & Co forecasting an annual delivery of $110 billion, indicating potential growth for Pfizer if it captures even a portion of this market [17]. - Pfizer offers a dividend yield of 6.9%, which is significantly higher than the average S&P 500 company, making it an attractive option for income-oriented investors [18].