华泰 | 港股策略：港股修复进行时

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing signs of bottoming out, with key risks such as US-China trade tensions and the impact of the "takeout war" on internet sector profitability being sufficiently released, indicating limited downside potential for current market levels [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations this week, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase. The market is nearing a state where negative factors have been largely priced in, leading to a relatively stable outlook [1]. - The sentiment indicators remain in a pessimistic range, indicating a lack of strong catalysts for market movement, which points towards opportunities for left-side positioning [1]. Key Risk Factors Released - US-China relations have stabilized following recent communications between leaders, reducing short-term uncertainty [2]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have rebounded, with the probability of a December FOMC rate cut exceeding 80% [2]. - Concerns regarding the impact of the "takeout war" on leading internet companies have peaked, with recent earnings reports from Alibaba and Meituan showing stability and signs of reduced subsidy pressures [2]. Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - Southbound net purchases of Hong Kong stocks decreased to HKD 19.8 billion, down from HKD 38.6 billion the previous week, but seasonal effects suggest potential for increased inflows in December [3]. - Foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks increased to USD 1.43 billion, indicating a positive trend despite seasonal tightening of capital [3]. - The potential unlock amount for December is approximately HKD 120 billion, which is manageable compared to previous months [3]. Earnings Guidance and Sector Focus - The current earnings disclosure period for Hong Kong stocks is nearing its end, with 67% of market capitalization having reported. Focus should be on sectors with improved fundamentals, particularly consumer goods and healthcare, which have shown stable earnings expectations [3]. - Recent adjustments in revenue and earnings forecasts indicate a mixed outlook, with consumer goods showing an upward revision of 2.8% while sectors like automotive and technology hardware have seen significant downward adjustments [3]. Investment Opportunities - Investors with a higher risk appetite may consider gradually building positions in the market, particularly in sectors where earnings expectations have stabilized post-adjustment [3]. - The current market environment suggests that investors should look for opportunities in consumer goods and healthcare sectors, which have shown resilience and potential for growth [3].