石油“供应过剩”预期持续升温 欧佩克+终于按捺不住 将于一季度暂停增产

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ will maintain its plan to pause production increases for the first quarter, reflecting expectations of seasonal market weakness amid persistent low international oil prices and signs of oversupply in the global oil market [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ confirmed a three-month supply pause initially announced earlier this month, led by key member Saudi Arabia, to address seasonal market weakness [1] - The organization approved a mechanism to review member production capacities, which will aid in setting production quotas for 2027 [1] - Despite the cautious approach to production increases, OPEC+ is expected to see a significant oversupply in the global oil market by early 2026, potentially exerting further pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Trends - Brent crude oil futures have dropped by 15% this year, hovering around $63 per barrel, due to an oversupply from both American oil production and OPEC+ increases outpacing demand growth [1] - Analysts from Rystad Energy noted that OPEC+ is prioritizing stability over ambition in light of deteriorating market prospects [1] Group 3: Future Projections and Challenges - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record oversupply of oil by 2026, with major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecasting further declines in futures prices [2] - OPEC+ has restored about 70% of the production levels paused since 2023, with approximately 1.1 million barrels per day still pending recovery [6] - The organization retains another layer of production cuts of about 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2026, with ongoing challenges in meeting production quotas among member countries [6][7]