年内涨幅超95%：白银逆袭黄金成贵金属“领涨王”

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as the standout performer in the precious metals market, achieving over 95% growth this year, significantly outperforming gold and establishing itself as the "leader" among precious metals [1][3]. Price Performance - COMEX silver and London spot silver have reached historical highs of $57.245 per ounce and $56.533 per ounce, respectively [1]. - In the domestic market, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 13,000 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since its listing [1]. Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: a surge in investment in precious metal ETFs following the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, a perceived valuation gap between silver and gold, and strong industrial demand amid declining physical supply [4][5]. - Global silver inventories have dropped to near ten-year lows, with free-flowing silver in the London market down approximately 75% from its peak in 2019 [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The silver market has faced a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, narrowing to 117.7 million ounces in 2025 [5]. - Global silver supply is expected to reach 1.015 billion ounces in 2024, reflecting a modest growth of 1.73% from 2023, primarily driven by mining output [5]. Future Price Support - Despite a narrowing supply-demand gap, the core supply tightness remains, providing solid support for silver prices. This is due to constraints in supply growth and persistent industrial demand [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has experienced significant weekly outflows in silver inventory, indicating that any supply-demand disturbances could amplify price impacts [6]. Long-term Projections - The long-term outlook for silver prices suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend over the next few years, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, declining real interest rates, and a recovery in industrial demand [7]. - However, caution is advised regarding short-term price corrections, influenced by factors such as improved liquidity in the London market and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy [7].