新棉超预期丰产 棉价或继续向上将触发套保压力

Group 1 - The main cotton futures contract closed at 13,725 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in open interest by 1,643 contracts [1] - During the week of November 24-27, cotton futures opened at 13,480 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 13,745 CNY/ton and a low of 13,465 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.89% [1] - As of November 25, the ICE deliverable inventory of No. 2 cotton contracts remained unchanged at 20,344 bales [2] Group 2 - The domestic import volume for the 2024/25 season is expected to be low, with the same import policy likely to continue into the 2025/26 season [4] - U.S. wholesalers of apparel and fabric have slightly increased their inventory, while retailers are primarily reducing stock; China's cotton exports to Southeast Asia and the U.S. and Europe remain stable, with minimal tariff impact [4] - The USDA's November report raised expectations for increased production in the external market, leading to a weaker external market and a rebound in U.S. cotton contracts due to low prices [4] Group 3 - As of November 27, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,079, an increase of 90 from the previous trading day [3] - The domestic market is experiencing a traditional off-season in November that is not as weak as expected, with favorable downstream trading conditions [4] - However, the unexpectedly high yield of new cotton is creating significant hedging pressure within the price range of 13,700 to 14,000 CNY/ton, which may trigger further hedging pressure if prices continue to rise [4]