中金：港股震荡中红利成“避风港” 聚焦红利资产及三大结构机会

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been experiencing volatility and lacks direction over the past two months, with dividend stocks emerging as a preferred choice in this uncertain environment [2][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - The market has been characterized by fluctuations, with high expectations and positions in the technology growth sector making investors sensitive to negative news, exacerbated by concerns over AI bubbles and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [2][5]. - The banking sector has rebounded nearly 10% since the end of September, indicating a preference for dividend stocks amidst the market's indecision [2][5]. - The Hang Seng Index's optimistic target of 26,000 points remains valid despite recent fluctuations [2]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Dividend assets are seen as a hedge against weak domestic demand, with the Hong Kong stock dividend yield still attractive, although the selection of such assets is narrowing [46]. - The AI industry is expected to continue benefiting from domestic policy support, but faces challenges due to high valuations and expectations, necessitating new catalysts for growth [21][32]. - External demand is anticipated to drive a cyclical recovery in global manufacturing, although sustainability over the year remains uncertain [36][38]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - Traditional domestic demand sectors are undervalued but lack profit support, presenting potential trading opportunities if policy catalysts emerge, while caution is advised regarding "static valuation traps" [45]. - The external demand chain is expected to benefit from U.S. fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts, with key indicators such as manufacturing PMI and existing home sales serving as timing signals [36][38]. - The AI sector's short-term focus should be on hardware domestic substitution, while long-term prospects hinge on application demand and profitability realization [21][33]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to maintain a "barbell" strategy, combining dividend stocks with technology and internet sectors, while dynamically adjusting weights based on market conditions [18]. - The focus should be on sectors with strong cyclical characteristics, such as copper and aluminum, particularly in the first quarter, while traditional domestic consumption may continue to be hampered by fundamental weaknesses [18][46].