“圣诞老人”恐爽约？本周美联储静默期持续，波动12月开局聚焦零售与云计算领军者业绩

Market Overview - The Nasdaq Composite Index ended a seven-month streak of gains, while the S&P 500 Index is just 1% away from its all-time high [1] - Despite a strong performance in the last five trading days of November, the overall market was highly volatile, with concerns over a potential AI bubble impacting major companies [1] - Notable stock movements included Meta's 13% decline, Nvidia's 8% drop, and Oracle's nearly 30% fall, while Google's stock rose approximately 20% following strong earnings and positive AI developments [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Investors are focused on the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with an 86.9% probability currently estimated [2] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting will take place from December 9 to 10, during which the Fed will be in a quiet period [2] - Economic data collection is expected to normalize after a 43-day government shutdown, with upcoming reports on manufacturing, services, and private sector employment [2] December Market Sentiment - Traditionally, December is a strong month for the stock market, but this year may deviate from that trend due to various economic uncertainties [3][4] - Analysts suggest that volatility may be a more significant theme this December, with increased bearish sentiment in the options market [5] - The market is experiencing a divergence in performance across sectors, with signs of momentum trading beginning to wane [7][8] Long-term Market Projections - Despite short-term volatility, long-term projections remain optimistic, with expectations for the S&P 500 Index to reach between 7,500 and 8,000 points by the end of 2026 [10] - The anticipated growth is attributed to resilient economic conditions and an AI-driven supercycle, which is expected to support capital expenditure and profit expansion [10] - Analysts emphasize that while the outlook for 2026 is positive, market volatility is likely to persist in the interim [11]