11月制造业PMI小幅回升 经济景气水平总体平稳

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in November increased to 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, reflecting a decline in non-manufacturing sectors [1][2][4] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with most sub-indices showing improvement, suggesting a stabilization in production activities and a recovery in demand [2] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month [2] - The new export orders index improved significantly to 47.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points [2] - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose to 53.6%, indicating a faster increase in raw material prices, while the ex-factory price index increased to 48.2%, showing a narrowing decline in finished product prices [2] - High-tech manufacturing maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors saw slight declines in their PMIs [2] Business Activity by Enterprise Size - Small enterprises showed a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up by 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [3] - Large enterprises experienced a decline in PMI to 49.3%, down by 0.6 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a slight improvement to 48.9% [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to seasonal effects from the high base during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [4] - The service sector's business activity index decreased to 49.5%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point drop, but is expected to recover as year-end consumption demand increases [4] - The financial sector showed strong performance with business activity and new orders indices rising above 55%, indicating robust activity in banking and capital market services [4] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, up by 0.5 percentage points, driven by accelerated project progress and supportive financial policies [4] Policy and Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the slight recovery in manufacturing PMI indicates improved market confidence, but caution that the index remains below the threshold, highlighting ongoing economic pressures [5] - There is a call for enhanced macroeconomic policy measures to stimulate demand and support investment, particularly as the year-end approaches [5][6] - Anticipated policy support and the release of pent-up demand are expected to stabilize investment and consumption, contributing to a positive economic close for the year [6]