OPEC+ Holds Fire, Maintains Oil Production Pause To March 2026

Group 1 - OPEC+ has decided to maintain crude output levels unchanged until March 2026 due to concerns over a potential supply glut [2][5] - The group has agreed on a mechanism to assess its members' maximum production capacity, which will serve as a reference for the 2027 production baselines [3][4] - The pause in output increases is attributed to expected lower seasonal demand, with a planned pause on oil output hikes in January, February, and March 2026 following a small production increase in December [5][6] Group 2 - OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, may gradually return 1.65 million barrels per day depending on market conditions [5][6] - The group will continue to monitor market conditions closely and retain flexibility to pause or reverse production adjustments, including previously implemented voluntary adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023 [6] - OPEC+ is facing competition from non-OPEC producers, with U.S. crude production reaching an all-time high of 13.47 million barrels per day in April 2024, and non-OPEC production growth expected to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day [7] Group 3 - Global demand growth projections for this year range from 0.68 million to 1.3 million barrels per day, with IEA and OPEC at opposite ends of this range [8] - There are concerns that the oil market may face a surplus of up to 500,000 barrels per day due to increased production from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC sources [9] - OPEC+ has shifted to a more cautious stance regarding production increases, indicating a strategic response to the competitive landscape in early 2026 [9]