华泰期货：为什么是白银？白银出现“挤仓行情”的底层逻辑

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged significantly in 2023, with London spot gold reaching a peak of $4,294 per ounce on October 20, marking a 62.3% increase since the beginning of the year, while spot silver hit $54 per ounce on October 17, reflecting an 86% increase [1] - The low inventory levels of silver in London have created conditions for a short squeeze, with silver ETFs showing a substantial increase in physical holdings, indicating a financialization of silver that reduces market liquidity [1] - Demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to reach approximately 195.7 million ounces by 2025, driven by global energy transition and installation expansion [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The global silver supply is projected to be constrained, with primary silver production decreasing from 26,637 tons in 2024 to 23,681 tons by 2030, while total demand is expected to exceed supply, leading to a supply deficit [4] - Investment demand for physical silver peaked at approximately 338.3 million ounces in 2022 but is expected to decline below 200 million ounces in 2024, with signs of recovery in 2025 [3] - The financial attributes of silver are expected to be supported by a weaker dollar and liquidity easing, which may drive investment towards silver, potentially leading to a decline in the gold-silver ratio towards a range of 50-70 [3]