世界制造业2026年如何发展

Global Manufacturing Industry Overview - In 2026, the global manufacturing sector is expected to exhibit a combination of structural differentiation and resilience, with overall growth projected to remain low, but significant disparities in growth across different sectors and regions [2] - The acceleration of technological iteration and structural transformation, driven by the fourth industrial revolution focusing on AI, industrial internet, and green energy, will push manufacturing towards smart, service-oriented, and low-carbon evolution [2][3] - Global supply chain restructuring and cost pressures will arise from geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism, and carbon neutrality goals, leading companies to reassess their supply chain layouts [2][3] Investment Trends - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in global manufacturing is expected to see a slight rebound, but with increasing regional and sectoral differentiation, primarily driven by policy incentives and expansion in technology-intensive fields rather than a broad recovery [3] - Investment in strategic emerging industries will continue to increase as governments and companies aim to capture future industry leadership in areas like AI and quantum computing [3] - Traditional industries such as steel and cement will face contraction and consolidation due to environmental policy pressures, leading to capacity exits [3] Trade Dynamics - Global manufacturing trade will face dual challenges of total contraction and structural differentiation, with growth expected to be below 1% [4] - Trade protectionism will continue to impact the sector, with potential expansions in tariffs and export controls raising compliance costs for exporting companies [4] - Emerging trade networks, particularly South-South trade, will become growth highlights, while technology trade barriers will reshape competitive rules [4] Regional Economic Conditions - The EU is expected to maintain a moderate recovery, but with weakened growth momentum due to structural issues [5] - BRICS nations will show significant regional differentiation, with some economies leveraging structural advantages for growth while others face transformation challenges [6] - ASEAN economies will rely on labor dividends and regional cooperation for moderate growth, but disparities among member countries will widen [7] Major Economies - The US manufacturing sector is projected to continue its strong recovery, supported by government policies and market demand, although it faces challenges from high inflation and geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Germany's industrial sector is expected to maintain steady growth, bolstered by its core position in global supply chains and strong export capabilities, despite facing transformation pressures [11] - Japan's manufacturing is anticipated to experience moderate recovery, driven by digital economy expansion and government investments in strategic technologies, although it is constrained by demographic challenges [12] - South Korea is likely to sustain its position as a global manufacturing hub, particularly in semiconductors and electric vehicles, but must navigate risks related to market volatility and domestic consumption [13]