三大人民币汇率指数小幅下挫，人民币汇率中长期或稳中有升

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate indices have declined, reflecting a broader trend influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and changes in market sentiment towards the dollar [1][5]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS yuan exchange rate index reported at 97.92, down 0.3% week-on-week [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket yuan exchange rate index stood at 104.47, decreasing by 0.19% [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket yuan exchange rate index was at 92.46, with a weekly decline of 0.14% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The dollar index experienced a decline of 0.71% over the week, falling below the 100 mark, influenced by weak U.S. retail data and heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut [5]. - The yuan strengthened against the dollar, with the onshore yuan closing at 7.0740, up 310 basis points (0.51%) for the week, and the offshore yuan at 7.0713, up 341 basis points (0.48%) [5]. - The yuan's central parity rate against the dollar was adjusted to 7.0789, an increase of 86 basis points for the week [5]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts attribute the yuan's strength to the Fed's anticipated rate cut, with the probability of a December cut rising from 35.4% to 85.4% within a week [5]. - The chief macro analyst at Guotai Junan noted a trend reversal in foreign trade enterprises' currency settlement preferences, contributing to the yuan's appreciation [6]. - The chief economist at Zhongyin Securities highlighted that the yuan's resilience amidst global economic uncertainties reflects a combination of factors, including a recovering Chinese economy and a weakening dollar [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the yuan's exchange rate will be influenced by the dollar's performance and U.S.-China trade relations, with expectations of continued moderate appreciation [7]. - The chief economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund anticipates a long-term upward trend for the yuan against the dollar, suggesting a potential break below 7 and a return to the 6 range by next year [8].