化工ETF(159870)涨超1.7%，展望2026年6F仍是最紧缺环节

Core Insights - The price agreement for 6F has exceeded expectations, with November delivery prices corresponding to an average of 85,000 (including tax) and December delivery prices expected to be around 130,000 to 140,000, significantly higher than the initial market expectation of 80,000 to 90,000 [1] - The net profit per ton for December 6F is estimated to be around 60,000 to 70,000 based on a cost of 60,000, corresponding to a 10x price-to-earnings ratio [1] - The industry is projected to remain tight through 2026, with current capacity just over 300,000 tons and only a 60,000-ton increase expected next year, primarily in the second half [1] Industry Developments - The solid-state battery sector is expected to see significant developments by the end of the year, including: 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to release mid-term review results in December, with leading manufacturers likely to exceed expectations [1] 2. Bidding for pilot lines from major clients is starting to open [1] 3. Major manufacturers are expected to conduct road tests by the end of the year [1] Market Performance - As of December 1, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 1.82%, with notable increases in component stocks such as: - Andong Biological (603077) up 10.05% - Duofluor (002407) up 6.98% - Tianci Materials (002709) up 6.93% [1] - The Chemical ETF (159870) also increased by 1.74%, marking a third consecutive rise [1] Index Composition - The CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) closely tracks the performance of major companies in the chemical sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 45.41% of the index. These include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309) - Salt Lake Co. (000792) - Tianci Materials (002709) - Cangge Mining (000408) - Juhua Co. (600160) - Hualu Hengsheng (600426) - Duofluor (002407) - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - Baofeng Energy (600989) - Yuntianhua (600096) [2]