供给收缩推动钨价创历史新高，出口修复预期锑价或底部反转

Group 1: Rare Earths - The supply and demand for rare earths are both weak, with neodymium oxide prices rebounding by 3.94% to 566,500 CNY/ton [1] - Dysprosium oxide prices decreased by 1.99% to 1,480,000 CNY/ton, while terbium oxide prices fell by 0.84% to 6,525,000 CNY/ton [1] - Some production companies are controlling output due to cost pressures, and the recent raw material supply tightness has eased [1] - Downstream magnetic material companies have not seen a significant increase in order volumes, maintaining low demand levels, with price fluctuations expected [1] - Recommended companies to watch include Guangsheng Nonferrous, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Jieli Permanent Magnet, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [1] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices down by 2.69% to 3,615 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices down by 1.26% to 235,500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply signals for molybdenum concentrate are showing signs of contraction, while weak terminal demand is dragging down industry profitability [2] - The industry is facing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with short-term price adjustments expected [2] - Recommended company to watch is Jintong Molybdenum [2] Group 3: Tungsten - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases for long-term contracts, with black tungsten concentrate prices up by 6.96% to 338,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices up by 4.10% to 495,000 CNY/ton [2] - The reduction in tungsten concentrate mining quotas and slowed production rates are tightening industry circulation [2] - Domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential purchases, with PCB tool demand showing positive trends [2] - Companies to watch include Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are strengthening due to ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin prices up by 4.66% to 305,000 CNY/ton and LME tin prices up by 5.97% to 39,100 USD/ton [3] - Supply-side issues include deteriorating safety conditions in major tin mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo and ongoing crackdowns on illegal mining in Indonesia [3] - Traditional consumer electronics demand is weak, while emerging fields like AI are performing well, leading to strong price expectations [3] - Recommended companies to watch are Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [3] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony prices are showing signs of bottom reversal, with antimony ingot prices up by 9.52% to 172,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices up by 10.75% to 154,500 CNY/ton [3] - Antimony ingot production has rebounded, but overall operating rates remain low due to raw material shortages [3] - Expectations for export recovery are boosting terminal purchasing confidence, with tight inventories for antimony ore and ingots [3] - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining [3]