降息交易进行时，贵金属上行动能充足

Group 1: Core Insights - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen a continuous price increase over the past two weeks, with London spot gold rising by 2.95% to $4,191.05 per ounce and London spot silver increasing by 3.65% to $53.91 per ounce [2][3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold price increased slightly by 0.08% to 953.92 yuan per gram, while the SHFE silver price rose by 3.04% to 12,727 yuan per kilogram [2][3] - The trading volume for SHFE gold decreased by 2.26% to 339,700 lots, whereas the trading volume for SHFE silver increased by 2.89% to 785,000 lots [2][3] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to several factors, including support for interest rate cuts from multiple Federal Reserve officials, which is expected to influence monetary policy decisions in the coming months [3][4] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, is also contributing to market volatility and may impact precious metals prices [4] - The anticipated changes in U.S. monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts, are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices in the second half of the year [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The combination of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions is projected to sustain upward pressure on gold prices through 2025, with central bank gold purchases expected to provide a strong support base [5] - According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand is forecasted to reach a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, driven by strong purchases from central banks and increased investment demand [5] - China's central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves, with a reported increase to 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, further indicating a bullish outlook for gold [5]