天然橡胶周报：利好因素驱动不足 胶价冲高回落

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a phase of range-bound fluctuations due to seasonal inventory accumulation and insufficient downstream demand [1][2] Supply Analysis - Domestic production areas are gradually entering a reduction and cessation period, while overseas regions like Thailand and Vietnam are experiencing continuous rainfall disruptions, leading to strong support for raw material prices on the cost side [1] - The volume of overseas shipments arriving at ports is showing a seasonal increase trend, but the accumulation of natural rubber inventory continues to suppress spot prices [1] Demand Analysis - As the end of the month approaches, some brands face monthly task pressures, leading to moderate replenishment actions by agents; however, overall demand performance is poor [1] - Channels and end-user sales are sparse, with most distributors showing insufficient willingness to restock, focusing more on digesting existing channel inventory [1] Market Outlook - The natural rubber inventory is entering a seasonal accumulation cycle, with expectations of further declines in downstream enterprise operations [1] - The market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with future attention on the output situation of raw materials during the peak production period in major producing areas and macroeconomic changes [1] - If raw material supply is smooth, a weakening of rubber prices is expected; if supply is constrained, rubber prices are projected to operate within the range of 15,000 to 15,500 [1]