Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-12-01 03:49Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of the banking sector in October 2025, highlighting a decline in credit demand and a shift in deposit trends, indicating ongoing challenges in the financial landscape [1][2][3]. Credit Performance - Excluding non-bank financial institutions, credit showed a negative growth in October, with a decrease in both retail and corporate loans. Residential loans fell by 360.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 520.4 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in consumer credit demand [1][2]. - Corporate loans saw an increase of 350 billion yuan, but short-term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan, reflecting limited demand for medium to long-term projects [2]. Social Financing - In October, social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan. Government bond issuance was 489.3 billion yuan, down 560.2 billion yuan from the previous year, suggesting a weakening support from government debt [3]. Deposit Trends - The M1 growth rate decreased to 6.2%, while M2 growth was at 8.2%. There is a continued trend of deposits moving towards non-bank financial institutions, with total deposits increasing by 610 billion yuan, but household deposits fell by 1.3 trillion yuan [4]. - The total scale of wealth management products reached a historical high of 33.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 1.1 trillion yuan from the previous month [4]. Banking Sector Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, listed banks showed resilience with revenue growth of 0.9% and profit growth of 1.6%. State-owned banks performed well, while the performance of smaller banks varied [5][6]. - The net interest margin for listed banks stabilized at 1.37%, with a slight improvement in the interest spread for smaller banks, indicating a recovery in profitability [9]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the banking sector may experience a rebound in Q4, driven by a rebalancing of market styles and increased interest in high-dividend stocks. Recommendations include both smaller banks in economically developed regions and larger, stable banks [12].