金鹰基金杨刚：风偏驱动渐行远 双轮驱动徐开来

Group 1 - The A-share market has continued its bull market trend this year, driven by liquidity, policy support, and key industry catalysts, with a strong focus on technology innovation, particularly AI as a leading investment theme [1] - There is a significant performance divergence between "new" and "old" stocks in the A-share market, with smaller companies ("小登") performing well while larger, established companies ("老登") lag behind [1] - The broad market indices, such as the Wind Micro-Cap Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index, have shown remarkable gains of over 70% and around 50% respectively this year, indicating a pronounced "structural bull" market characteristic [1] Group 2 - Mainstream institutional views remain optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook for the A-share market, with short-term fluctuations not altering the upward trend [2] - The expectation is that the A-share market may transition from a liquidity-driven "atypical recovery market" to a more balanced "dual-driven" market supported by valuation and fundamentals by next year [2] - The macroeconomic and policy environment is expected to focus on both stable growth and high-quality development, with a combination of more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy likely to support the A-share market [2] Group 3 - The actual effectiveness of monetary policy this year has been somewhat lower than market expectations, with fiscal policy being more effective in driving economic recovery [3] - Despite constraints on monetary policy due to pressures on banks during the real estate downturn, there is still room for flexible monetary policy in 2026, especially in light of ongoing economic recovery challenges [3] - The global policy environment in 2026 is anticipated to foster a new phase of economic recovery, which could positively impact global equity markets, including A-shares [4] Group 4 - A-share corporate earnings are expected to gradually recover in 2026, with net profit growth projected to rise from low single digits this year to at least double digits next year, driven by improved profitability [4] - The "technology bull" market is expected to transition into a more balanced recovery market, moving beyond reliance on thematic narratives and valuation expansion [4] Group 5 - The shift in domestic residents' asset allocation from physical assets to financial assets is still in its early stages, with only a small number of high-net-worth investors actively participating [5] - Historical patterns suggest that as the market's profitability becomes more evident, new capital will likely flow into the equity market, which may occur next year [6] - Institutional behavior indicates that insurance funds are rapidly increasing their equity asset allocations, while public funds are also seeing significant inflows into passive ETFs, suggesting a positive outlook for the A-share market [6] Group 6 - The current market adjustment phase provides a good opportunity for investors to increase their equity positions, with a focus on technology sectors expected to remain a key theme next year [7] - Investors are encouraged to seek undervalued sectors with potential for significant profit improvement, aligning with the broader economic recovery [7] - A disciplined approach to investment, such as regular fund contributions, is recommended while waiting for the dual-driven opportunities of valuation enhancement and profit recovery in the domestic equity market in 2026 [7]