负增长！日本央行行长发声

Economic Overview - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that Japan's economy experienced a temporary contraction in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, but the overall recovery trend remains intact [1] - The IMF has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.8% to 3.0%, with expectations of further growth to 3.1% in 2026, driven by trade agreements and stable consumer spending in the U.S. [2] Japan's Economic Performance - Japan's actual GDP contracted in Q3 2025 due to a natural decline following preemptive exports to avoid tariffs, but the annualized growth rate from April to September 2025 was 0.9%, above the potential growth rate of approximately 0.5% [3] - Key sectors show resilience, with IT-related exports benefiting from global AI demand, and corporate profits remaining high, leading to a projected 10.3% increase in fixed investment for FY2025 [3] Inflation Trends - Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) is currently rising at about 3%, primarily driven by food prices and wage increases, with expectations of a temporary drop below 2% in the first half of FY2026 [4] Monetary Policy Direction - The Bank of Japan plans to gradually raise interest rates as economic conditions improve, with the spring 2026 labor negotiations being a critical observation point for policy adjustments [5] - Current labor market conditions support wage increases, with the minimum wage rising over 5% in FY2025, and unions targeting wage hikes of over 5% for 2026 [5][6] Decision-Making Process - The Bank of Japan is collecting data on corporate wage increase intentions and will assess the benefits and drawbacks of interest rate hikes during the monetary policy meeting on December 18-19 [6]