日本央行行长植田和男：日本经济温和复苏 12月将审慎评估加息路径

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, reiterated that the Japanese economy has achieved a "moderate recovery," despite a temporary negative GDP growth in Q3 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - Ueda emphasized that uncertainties regarding the economic outlook are diminishing as companies continue to raise wages and prices, alongside a gradual recovery in the overseas economy [1] - The minimum wage for FY2025 is expected to increase by over 5% year-on-year, likely leading to broader corporate wage hikes [1] Inflation Expectations - Core consumer inflation is projected to temporarily fall below 2% in the first half of FY2026, before accelerating again [1] - Ueda highlighted that inflation levels are expected to align with the 2% target during the latter half of the Bank of Japan's three-year outlook period [1] - Attention is required on recent price trends that may influence inflation expectations and potential inflation risks [1] Monetary Policy - Ueda stated that it is necessary to adjust the monetary easing measures appropriately to achieve price stability, indicating that any interest rate hikes should neither be too late nor too early [1] - Even with potential interest rate increases, a loose financial environment will be maintained, with rate hikes viewed as "moderately easing the accelerator" rather than "slamming the brakes" [1] Data Review and External Risks - The Bank of Japan will review various data in its December meeting to assess domestic and international economic activities and price conditions, weighing the pros and cons of interest rate hikes [2] - Despite signs of weakness in the overseas economy, a gradual recovery is noted, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the global economy has not been significantly observed [2] - Actual interest rates remain at very low levels, and exchange rate movements are more likely to affect domestic prices due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [2]