负增长，日本央行行长发声

Economic Overview - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that Japan's economy experienced its first negative growth in six quarters during Q3 2025, but this is viewed as a temporary adjustment rather than a long-term trend [1][5] - The overall economic recovery remains intact, with a projected annualized GDP growth rate of 0.9% from April to September 2025, surpassing the potential growth rate of approximately 0.5% [5] Global Economic Context - The global economy is showing "moderate growth with localized weaknesses," influenced by trade policies, but the impact of tariffs on the global economy has not been as significant as expected [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.8% to 3.0%, with a further increase to 3.1% expected in 2026, driven by trade agreements and robust private consumption in the U.S. [3] Japanese Economic Performance - Japan's export sector remains resilient, with IT-related exports benefiting from global AI demand, despite fluctuations in automobile exports due to preemptive export strategies [5] - Corporate profits are stable, with a slight upward revision in profit forecasts for listed companies in FY2025, and fixed investment is expected to grow by 10.3%, focusing on R&D and labor-saving software [5] Inflation and Price Trends - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently rising at approximately 3%, primarily driven by food prices and wage increases [6] - A temporary decline in core CPI below 2% is anticipated in the first half of FY2026, but long-term inflation is expected to align with the Bank of Japan's target of 2% due to economic recovery and labor shortages [6] Monetary Policy Direction - The Bank of Japan plans to gradually increase interest rates in response to economic and price improvements, with the spring 2026 labor negotiations being a critical observation point for policy adjustments [7][9] - Current conditions support wage increases, with the minimum wage rising over 5% in FY2025, and corporate profits providing a foundation for further wage growth [8][9] Future Considerations - The Bank of Japan is collecting data on corporate wage increase intentions and will assess the benefits and drawbacks of interest rate hikes in the upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 18-19 [9] - The goal is to achieve a stable 2% inflation target while maintaining financial stability and promoting long-term economic growth in Japan [9]